Iowa State doesn’t have great odds to beat Iowa and take home the Cy-Hawk Trophy in 2018.
SB Nation’s Bill Connelly released his S&P+ win probabilities for the Cyclones this season, and the advanced analytics system gives Iowa State a 38-percent chance of beating the Hawkeyes. However, that’s better than the Cyclones’ odds to beat Texas (33 percent), TCU (30 percent) Oklahoma State (29 percent) or Oklahoma (24 percent).
Iowa State has lost three straight to the Hawkeyes. Its last win in the annual rivalry was a 20-17 victory in Iowa City in 2014. Iowa leads the all-time series 43-22.
The Cyclones nearly beat the Hawkeyes in 2017, falling 44-41 in overtime. And that was before Kyle Kempt took over as Iowa State’s starting quarterback. With he and star running back David Montgomery back, it’s not difficult to see a way the Cyclones could end the Hawkeyes’ streak in 2018.
There are concerns that likely play into the S&P+ projection, though. Iowa State’s best weapon in the passing game, receiver Allen Lazard, is gone to the NFL. The team also lost All-American linebacker Joel Lanning. And the matchup this season will be played at Iowa.
The Cyclones will try overcome those factors when they meet Iowa on Sept. 8.