Advanced stats aren’t high on Texas Tech football heading into the 2018 season.
The latest S&P+ win projections from SB Nation’s Bill Connelly have the Red Raiders winning 5.9 games in the regular season, right on the cusp of the six wins needed for bowl eligibility. The analytics system favors Texas Tech in five games this season.
- vs. Lamar – 100 percent
- vs. Houston – 60 percent
- vs. West Virginia – 54 percent
- vs. Kansas – 80 percent
- vs. Baylor – 51 percent
The Red Raiders also have a 40 percent chance or better of winning three other games, according to S&P+: at Iowa State (43 percent), vs. Texas (43 percent) and at Kansas State (49 percent).
If Texas Tech can win all the games where it is favored and get a couple breaks in those other three games, getting to a bowl game shouldn’t be an issue. But if they lose a toss-up game against West Virginia or Baylor and don’t make up for it in the games where they aren’t favored, things could go poorly very quickly.
Connelly thinks the Red Raiders could be better than that, though, thanks to an experienced defense and Kliff Kingsbury’s typically explosive offense.
From SB Nation:
That makes Tech awfully intriguing, even if the overall S&P+ projection of 6-6 with a bunch of tight games (seven projected within 6.8 or fewer points) is still the most likely scenario.
It does feel like Kingsbury can’t afford another down year. With a typically good offense and the most experienced (and, sadly, proven) defense he’s ever had, he’s got a chance to finally stand out.
Texas Tech opens the 2018 season against Ole Miss at NRG Stadium in Houston.