Advanced stats say the Texas Longhorns are on track for another bowl appearance in 2018, but they’ll need some good fortune to get much more than that.
The latest S&P+ win projections from SB Nation’s Bill Connelly have the Longhorns winning 7.3 games this season after going 7-6 in 2017. However, Texas is favored in nine games overall, and they have a 46 percent chance of beating USC as well.
Here are the win probabilities for all the games the Longhorns are favored to win this year, per S&P+.
- vs. Maryland* – 74 percent
- vs. Tulsa – 89 percent
- vs. TCU – 52 percent
- at Kansas State – 62 percent
- vs Baylor – 68 percent
- vs. West Virginia – 66 percent
- at Texas Tech – 57 percent
- vs. Iowa State – 67 percent
- at Kansas 81 percent
* – at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.
If Texas were to win all the games where it’s favored, and grab a win in a toss-up game against the Trojans, that would mean a 10-win season and validation for Tom Herman in his second year as coach. In order to do that, though, the Longhorns need more consistency on offense, particularly at quarterback.
From SB Nation:
But it’s all about the offense. It ranked 99th in Off. S&P+, unacceptable under any circumstances. If Herman and coordinator Tim Beck can figure out the right buttons to push, every game on UT’s schedule is winnable. The Horns are projected 27th overall in S&P+, are favored in nine games, and are only narrow underdogs in two others. A good offense could mean 10 or more wins for the first time since, well, you know.
Texas opens the 2018 season against Maryland on Sept. 1.